Myanmar: 2020 General Election Results Prediction ; The Possibility of NLD Forming Union GovernmentDownload PDF
Bayda Institute has been working closely with National League for Democracy ( NLD ) since its foundation on the 20th November 2010.
Bayda Institute also works with other political parties, NGOs and CSOs . Bayda Institute works throughout Myanmar, organizing a lot of workshops, seminars and trainings . Bayda Institute is
one of the key think-thank organizations as to Peace Process for NLD .
Bayda Institute has made researches on election, ethnic minorities, federalism and peace process . Bayda Institute has been actively taking part in 2008 constitution reform movement.
Main areas of work of Bayda Institute are Democracy , Federalism, Peace and Election.
Since its long partnership with NLD, it knows a lot of in-depth insight about NLD’s strength and weaknesses. Bayda Institute has a great deal of knowledge about political atmosphere of Myanmar, insightful data and information in detail about all states and region , from township level to national level.
Based on these in-depth knowledge , Bayda Institute has made a research on the 2020 election possible results , and completed a paper called “ Myanmar: 2020 General Election Results Prediction; The Possibility of NLD Forming Union Government’.
Bayda Institute hopes that this paper will help you understand political scenarios of Myanmar , especially as to 2020 general election . The main idea behind this paper of Bayda Institute is that you can read this prediction of election results 2020 and compare this with the actual results on the 8th of November 2020 .Bayda Institute wishes you “ Happy Tadingyut “ .
Myo Yan Naung Thein
1st October 2020
Myanmar: 2020 General Election Results Prediction ; The Possibility of NLD Forming Union Government.
The possibility of NLD forming government and 2020 Election
The estimate of NLD winning in 2020 election as follow;
- NLD will win , in the worst situation , at least 274 out of 291 seats in 7 regions and Naypyitaw,
- In Kachin state, NLD will win in the worst situation ,at least 21 seats out of 30 Union Parliament seats.
- In Kayah state, in the worst situation ,NLD will win at least 12 seats out of 19 Union Parliament seats.
- In Karen state, in the worst situation ,NLD will win at least 17 seats out of 19 Union Parliament seats.
- In Chin state, in the worst situation ,NLD will win at least 15 seats out of 21 Union Parliament seats.
- In Mon state ,NLD will win in the worst situation at least 18 seats out of 22 Union Parliament seats.
- In Rakhine state ,NLD will win in the worst situation at least 6 seats out of 29 Union Parliament seats.
- In Shan state, ,NLD will win in the worst situation at least 14 seats out of 67 Union Parliament seats.
Thus,in the whole Myanmar, NLD will win , in the worst situation, at least 377 seats out of 498 Union Parliament elected seats.
Union Election Commission announced on the 17th October 2020 that election is cancelled in nine townships in Rakhine state and six townships in Shan state. Thus , 15 seats will be taken out of 330 elected seats in Pyithu Hluttaw . So , 315 Pyithu Hluttaw seats will be left. Seven seats will be cancelled in Amyotha Hluttaw, so 161 seats will be left.
So in the upcoming Parliament there will be 315 elected eats and 110 military seats , altogether 425 seats in Pyithu Hluttaw; 161 elected seats and 56 military seats , altogether 217 seats in amyotha Hluttaw.
So in Pyidaungsu Hlutttaw , there will be altogether 642 seats. So any party can form the government if that party wins 322 seats . NLD party can win in the worst situation at least 377 seats, that is, 55 seats more than 322 seats needed to form government. Even in the worst situation ,NLD can have extra 55 seats after formation of the government,it means NLD can easily form government. In 2015 election, NLD won 390 seats. If NLD win again 390 seats, NLD will have 68 extra seats after formation of the government. 377 union parliament seats winning possibility of NLD is the calculation for the worst situation. If the situation is better, NLD can win about 400 out of 476 Union Parliament elected seats.
( In the paragraphs below , Pyidaungsu Hluttaw will be referred as Union Parliament , Amyotha Hluttaw as Upper House and Pyithu Hluttaw as Lower House for the sake of better understanding )
Seven Regions and 2020 Election
There are 37 townships in Sagaing Region, 12 Upper House seats and 37 Lower House seats altogether 49 Union Parliament seats. In 2015 election ,Min Kin Lower House seat was won by USDP , but with a few votes ahead of NLD . In 2020 election ,NLD can win Minkin. But Khamti District of Khamti and Homelin townships and Naga Seif-administrative areas with 3 townships, the possibility of NLD winning is 65 to 35.Thus,in Sagaing Region, NLD can win in the worst situation , 45 seats out of 49.(i.e. Minkin is not calculated in 45 seats and 3 out of 4 union parliament seats from Naga Region are not calculated, 4 seats will be lost by NLD in the face of the worst situation . There is high possibility that all union parliament seats of Sagaing region will be won by NLD.0
Mandalay Region is challenging area for NLD . In Mandalay , there are 28 lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats, so there are 40 Union Parliament seats .Meiktila,Yamethin,Pyawbwe and Thazi townships are lost by NLD in 2015. Apart from these 4 townships, other 24 townships of Mandalay Region are strongholds of NLD. In Pyawbwe and Yamethin, NLD popularity is rising but in calculation of this possible result,these four townships will not be taken into calculation, so in 2020 election, NLD will win 36 out of 40 seats.
There are 8 townships in Naypyitaw: Tatkone, Pyinmana, Lewe, Zayyarthiri, Pobbathiri, Zabuthiri, Oattarathiri, Dakkhinathiri.
In Tatkone,Pyinmana,Lewe NLD will win for sure.
In 2015 election,
- NLD lost in Zayyarthiri.
- NLD won in Pobbathiri but at a narrow margin.
- Zabuthiri,Oattarathiri and Dakkhinathiri,NLD had to compete quite fiercely with USDP.NLD won quite well in Dakkhinathiri and Zabuthiri but it was a quite fierce fight
- Zabuthiri,Oattarathiri and Dakkhinathiri are the places of high possibility for NLD to win ,NLD is stronger than USDP
- NLD will surely win in Oattarathiri
For 2020 election,we have to calculate the worst situation ,so we estimate only 4 out of 8 townships will be won by NLD.So NLD will win 4 out of 8 lower House seats.
In Magwe Region, there are 25 Lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats so altogether 37 Union Parliament seats. In 2015 election , NLD won every single seats , all Union and Regional level seats in Magwe Region.The whole region is stronghold of NLD and so all 37 Union Parliament seats will be won by NLD.
In Bago Region,there are 28 Lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats, so there are 40 seats.In the western part of Bago Region, NLD lost Zigon in 2015 election.NLD is stronger in 2020 but to calculate this estimate result , taking the worst situation into account , Zigon township will not be calculated in the winning list. In the eastern part of Bago Region,Kyaukkyi is quite challenging for NLD.NLD won in Kyaukkyi in 2015 election but for the sake of estimation in the worst situation, Kyaukkyi will not be calculated in the winning list. So NLD will win for the worst situation, 38 out of 40 Union Parliament seats.
In Yangon Region,there are 45 townships and 45 Lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats so there are 57 Union Parliament seats .NLD will lose in Cocokyun(Coco islands) township which is the Navy base.NLD will win 56 out of 57 Union Parliament seats.
Thaninthari Region ,like Magwe Region, is the area of NLD stronghold. In 2015 election,100% won by NLD in both Union and Region Level. There are 10 Lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats altogether 22 Union Parliament seats . In 2020 election, NLD will win all 22 seats.
There are 26 townships in Ayeyarwaddy Region, 26 Lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats, so there are altogether 38 seats in Union Parliament. In 2015 election, NLD won all Union Parliament seats , except Kyaunggon township. Ayeyarwaddy region is a place where USDP is strong. USDP get an average of 40% of votes of all townships in Ayeyarwaddy Region. Ngapudaw, Kyaunggon,Einme, Mawlamyine Kyun, Bogalay,Warkema are the townships of challenge for NLD. In these townships, USDP is not strong enough to beat NLD but they are challenging .They will be fierce fight. NLD will win back Kyaunggon which NLD lost at a very narrow margin to USDP in 2015. In Ayeyarwaddy Region, NLD can win all 38 seats out of 38 seats ,but in the calculation of the worst situation,36 seats out of 38 seats of Union Parliament will be won.
So 7 Regions and Naypyitaw, there are 291 Union Parliament seats, so in the worst situation, NLD will win 274 out of 291 union parliament seats of all the regions .In 2015 election,281 out of 291 Union Parliament seats will be won by NLD in regions..
In 2020 election calculation , in the worst situation, NLD will win 274 out of 291 Union parliament seat in all 7 regiona and Naypyitaw.
Kachin State and 2020 Election
Kachin state is composed of 4 Districts,
- Putao District :Nogmung,Machanbaw,Kawnglangphu , Sumprabum and Putao Townships.
- Myitkyina District : Tanai ,Myitkyina,Waingmaw,Chipwi, Hsawlaw and Injangyang Townships.
- Mohnyin District: Mohnyin,Mogaung and Hpakant Townships.
- Bhamo District: Shwegu,Bhamo,Momauk,Mansi Townships.
There are 4 Districts,18 Townships,so there are 18 seats in Lower House and 12 seats in Upper House. There are altogether 30 seats at the Union Level Parliament.
For the Upper House,12 Constituencies that divided
- All five townships in Putao District.
- Myitkyina township .
- Injangyang township, Chipwi township, Hsawlaw township.
- Waingmaw township.
- Tanai township.
- Half of Mohnyin township.
- Another Half of Mohnyin Tsp township.
- Mogaung township.
- Hpakant township.
- Bhamo township.
- Momauk Tsp
- Shwegu township and Mansi township.
In 5 Townships of Putao District, there are Rawang and Lisu ethnicities. There is a little Shan ethnicity in Putao township .In Sumprabum township ,Jingphaw is the majority .In Putao District,population is very sparse except Putao township.
If we observe 2015 election,we can see that as small as 300 to 400 people can have one representative in Union Parliament. In Nogmung township,1000 votes can make a representative in Union Parliament.
Nogmung and Sumprabum will be shown for example,
- Nogmung Township
State parliament constituency 1 – USDP 1007 votes(58.05%), NLD 469 votes(27.49%)
State parliament constituency 2 – NLD 641 votes(38.34%),USDP 784 votes(46.89%)
Pyithu Hluttaw Constitutency – NLD 1358 votes(40.71%),USDP 1865 votes(55.90%)
- Sumprabum Township
State parliament constituency 1 – NLD 294 votes( 37.25%),USDP 277 votes( 39.29%)
State parliament constituency 2 – KSDP(Kachin State Democratic Party) 188 votes ( 38.84 %)NLD 109 votes( 22.52 %),USDP 130 votes(26.86 %)
Pyithu Hluttaw Constitutency – NLD 435 votes( 34.28%),USDP 317 votes( 27.50 %),KSDP 320 votes(25.22%)
When election for Putao District is considered, population and travel distance must be taken into account .The Election result of 2 Townships is shown to demonstrate the population there. In Sumprabum, NLD won in 2015,population is very little ,so change in the election result can happen anytime. In Machanbaw,Kawnglangphu and Nogmung t ownships, both USDP and NLD are strong in its own ways. In Putao district, the rise of supporters of NLD is observed. NLD is doing well , for 2020 the support for NLD is comparatively very high as to 2015.Communication , transportation and electricity in Putao district is improved a lot, improved dramatically thanks to NLD Government. In Machanbaw,Kawnglangphu and Nogmung,the possibility of NLD to win is estimated to be 70%.In Putao township,NLD will win.In Putao township,the majority of population are Lisu and Rawan ; they are NLD supporters.The possibility of NLD win is 85% in Putao.
Tanai , Myitkyina, Waingmaw, Chipwi, Hsawlaw and Injangyang Townships,all 5 Townships in Myitkyina District is quite challenging for NLD.In Tanai Township,NLD will win in Shinbwayyan.In Tanai Tsp,there are Shinbwayyan Part and Tanai Part,NLD win in Shinbwayyan Part,NLD lost in 2015 in Tanai part .Tanai is the stronghold for former Chief-Minister of Kachin state of USDP Mr. La John Ngan Hsai. NLD won in both Upper and Lower House of 2015 but that victory was at narrow margin.
In 2020,50-50 must be calculated for NLD to win in Tanai township.
In 2015, NLD won both Upper and Lower House in Myitkyina township.
but victory was at narrow margin.In 2018 Bi-election ,USDP won the Upper House seat in Myitkyina township..KSPP(Kachin state peple party),alliance party of Kachin state was in second place,NLD got only 3rd place.
NLD will win Southern Part of Myitkyina in 2020 but it is not sure to win the whole township. With many advance votes from Military in that area. It is quite hard to win both Upper and Lower House Myitkyina township. for NLD.
There is one Upper House seat in Chipwi, Hsawlaw and Injangyang, three townships combined together.In 2015 Zahkung Ting Ying Won in that areas.It is hard to win both Upper and Lower House seats of these three townships .In Injangyang township., the majority of population is Jingphaw and very little population.It is the stronghold for Kachin Parties.According to 2015 election result,Kachin Democratic Party won 439 votes(47.93%) and 2 state parliament seats were won by Kachin Democratic Party as well by 213 votes(40.04 %) and 203 votes(52.59%)respectively. Injangyang is the place with majority of Jingphaw with very little population, so that is like a big Jingphaw village. It is very hard for NLD to win. Kachin Party will win in that areas. Chipwi and Hsawlaw townships were controlled by the Militia group of Zahkung Ting Ying. Lowo , Lacheit and Lisu population live in Chipwi and Hsawlaw.In 2015 election ,the troops ,the soldiers from Zahkung Ting Ying prevented NLD from campaigning in these two townships..In 2020, Zahkung Ting Ying militia group cannot make such prevention to NLD anymore. Moreover,in Chi pwi township, communication, transportation and electricity improved a lot thanks to NLD Government. So people in these two townships are thankful to NLD government ,so there is high possibility that NLD will win for these two townships.
Mohnyin, Mogaung and Hpakant, these three townships are in Mohnyin district ,so there are 3 seats in Lower House and 4 seats in Upper House. In Mohnyin township alone ,there are 2 seats for Upper House. Mohnyin district is the stronghold for NLD for decades. NLD won decisively in 2015 election .There are many Jingphaw population in Hpakant township but they are supporters of NLD. There is Red Shan Party in Mohnyin and Mogaung but they are very weak and far from strong enough to compete with NLD. Thus all 7 union parliament seats of Mohnyin district will be won by NLD.
In Bhamo district, there are Shwegu, Bhamo, Momauk,Mansi townships. NLD is very strong in all townships except Mansi township.There are 4 seats for Lower House and 3 seats for Upper House. One Upper House seats for 2 townships ,Shwegu and Mansi combined.NLD will win 6 seats out of 7 seats.There is possibility that NLD lose in Mansi in Lower House seat,but for Upper House seat, Shwegu and Mansi combined NLD will win thanks to higher population of Shwegu. NLD won Lower House seats for Mansi township and one state parliament seat;Another state parliament seat was won by SNLD in 2015 election. NLD become very weak in 2015, it is because NLD Party Local Committee is very weak. Mansi is next to Shan state , there are significant amount of Shan population in that areas , so SNLD is strong. USDP is also strong. There is possibility that NLD will lose Mansi township in 2020.
1.in Putao District, Putao township is sure to be won. There is high possibility that NLD will win in Machanbaw, Kawnglangphu and Nogmung.There is high possibility that NLD not to win in Sumprabum. In the worst situation NLD will win 4 seats out of 6 seats in Union Parliament, one Upper House seat and three Lower Hwoouse seats
2.In Myitkyina District, Winemaw township is sure to be win. There is high possibility to NLD win in Myitkyina,Chipwi and Hsawlaw townships.There is high possibility to NLD lost is in Tanai and Injangyang. In the Worst situation, NLD will win 4 seats out of 10 seats in Myitkyina district , two for Upper and two for Lower House.
3.In Mohnyin District, NLD will win all 7 seats for in Union Parliament.
4.In Bhamo District, in the worst situation NLD will win 6 seats out of 7 seats in Union Parliament.
As a result , in the worst situation, NLD will win 21 seats out of 30 seats in Union Parliament.
For better understanding ,
1.Jing Phaw ,La waw,La Cheik people liveSumprabum in Myitkyina district and Putao district.
2 .In Putao district, there are mainly Lisu and Ra wang population.
3.In Bhamo district and Mohnyin district, the majority of the population are Bamar and Red Shan. There are Parties for Red Shan but it is weak.
Kayah state and 2020 election
There are many development in Kayah state during NLD Government .The transportation and communication in Kayah state is totally different from 5 years ago. Until 5 years ago, there is electricity only in Loikaw. Now,almost the whole state get electricity. The question of whether people of Kayah state will vote NLD looking at all the development of NLD government or vote another party looking at some political flaws made by NLD. In 2015 , all people from Kayah state voted for NLD very decisively ,whether the same scenario can happen in 2020 is a big question,especially in areas like Demoso, Hpruso and Shadaw where Kayah and Kayan ethnicity live. Looking from development point of view, there are many progress, however there are some mistakes of NLD, they are not big mistakes but small mistake accumulate into big one. NLD made mistake not only inside NLD party itself but also outside NLD. Dr.Daw Khin Sithu,the chairperson of Kayah state NLD was set aside, as the result,the executive committee of NLD Kayah state became weak. State government of Kayah state cannot handle issues very wisely , as a result public dissent arose. The state where NLD must win easily become the place for NLD to struggle due to some political mistakes. NLD become weaker than before but it is not as weak as many people think.
In Kayah state,there are seven towhships thus there are seven seats in Lower House and 12 seats in Upper House. There are altogether 19 seats in Union Parliament. Each township gets 2 seats in Upper House except Shadaw and Mese. Therefore loss of one township means all of 3 seats in Union Parliament : one Lower House seat and two Upper House seats.
Kayah state is the only one place in Myanmar where three Union Parliament seats can be achieved by winning over one thousand voters. In Loikaw township,all three seats in Union Parliament will be won by NLD; It is definitely sure result. Out of three seats in Hpasawng Union Parliament , two seats are sure to be won by NLD .The remaining Upper House seat in another part of Hpasawng was won by USDP in 2015. In that Upper House seat, KYSDP and KNP party based in Kayah state are not strong. NLD will win at least 2 seats in Hpasawng; there is possibility that 3 seats will be won. All 2 seats of Union Parliament of Mese will be won by NLD. Mese is the stronghold of U Al Found Sho, former Chief-Minister. Bawlekhe is the stronghold of USDP and was won by USDP in 2015. NLD is also strong in Bawlekhe,but NLD and USDP winning in Union Parliament seat in Bawlekhe is 50-50 m.KySDP and KNP are not strong in Bawlekhe. Unlike 2015,NLD candidates in Bawlekhe are popular and quite hardworking. It is assumed that NLD will win at least one seat out of three Union Parliament seats. Demoso, Hpruso and Shadaw used to be NLD stronghold. As a result of Political discontent , half of its Union Parliament eight seats can be lost. However the possibility of winning all eight seats is still there. At the centre of Demoso, Hpruso and Shadaw is the areas for KNPP. The ceasefire group of Kayah state so that KNPP can influence the election result. Kayah and Kayan people live mainly in these 3 townships. The emerging Kayah, Kayan party ,KySDP is strong in these three townships. KNPP wants KySDP to win in state parliament and NLD to win Union Parliament. KySDP and KNP also want to win in state parliament more than union parliament.
In Shadaw, Daw Wint Wah Tun, the Union Parliamentarian is quite popular with the people so that she can win again in 2020 election. She is from Lower House. The seat for Upper House of Shadaw can be won by NLD but there is possibility that it can be lost. The bad news is that the risk of NLD loss can come from military votes. The constituency where 1500 votes is the most possible amount of vote obtained by candidates ;in such a situation 300 voters from Military is decisive factor .In 2015 election, NLD won USDP at the narrow margin, at about 100 votes more than USDP. In 2015,there were not as many military voters in that areas. For Shadaw Union Parliament,at least one seat can be won out of two seats.
In Demoso and Hpruso,there are six seats in Union Parliament.Each township gets three seats in Union Parliament. The possibility of NLD to win in Demoso is a lot higher than that of Hpruso. In the worst situation, NLD will win half of six Union Parliament seats. At least NLD will win three seats in Demoso and Hpruso.
- Five Union Parliament seats in Loikaw and Mese will be won by NLD
- Out of six Union Parliament seats in Bawlekhe and Hpasawng ,NLD will win three seats
- Out of eight Union Parliament seats in Demoso and Hpruso, NLD will win at least four seats.
- In the worst situation, NLD will win 12 seats out of 19 seats of Union Parliament of Kayah state.
Karen state and 2020 election
There are seven townships in Karen state, seven Lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats , altogether 19. There are only one Lower House seat and one Upper House seat in Thandaunggyi and Hpapon. The remaining five townships have one Lower House seat and two Upper House seats in each township.
3 categories is made by observing the strength of NLD,
Category A Hpa-an, Hlaingbwe and Myawaddy.
These 3 townships are stronghold of NLD and it is sure that NLD win.
Category B Kawkereik and Kyarinseikgyi .
In both townships, NLD will win but with great endeavour. Kawkereik is stronger than Kyarinseikgyi for NLD.
Grade(C) Hpapon and Thandaunggyi
There is possibility that NLD lose.
In Hpa-an , Hlaingbwe and Myawaddy , the people are strong supporters of NLD. There is no real rivalry for NLD in these three townships.
All nine Union Parliament seats will be won by NLD.
In Kawkareik and Kyarinseikgyi, NLD is the strongest and USDP is second after NLD. The Karen Party (KNDP) is not strong. Kawkereik with a lot more urban population is better for NLD than Kyarinseikgyi. These days, KNU said they cannot grantee the security of election in these two townships .Moreover, KNU said NLD and USDP must not come into villages in these townships. On the other hand, Saw Chitthu of BGF is campaigning for USDP saying that Buddism and Nationalism must be promoted . Despite of that situation, it is sure that NLD will win in both townships. If NLD loses, USDP will win. Local people are afraid that USDP win. Local people are strong supporters of NLD and thus possibility is very high that NLD win. All six seats of Union Parliament from these two townships will be won by NLD.
The decisive factor of Hpapon township is Military votes. Hpapon is controlled by KNU regiment no. 5. It is impossible to hold election in some villages in Hpapon townships. USDP always win in Hpapon townships. NLD is as strong as USDP in Hpapon. Howere, there are a lot of military votes , so military vote is decisive factor. Karen party KNDP is not strong in Hpapon. It is possible that USDP win both Lower and Upper House.
In Thandaunggyi township, Both Karen People Party- KPP and NLD are strong in its own ways. Thandaunggyi is the military base and many military voters are there. Military votes are very important for party victory .Former colonel Saw Htun Aung Myint is the chairman of KPP and he is supported by the military , so that KPP has such advantage. NLD and KPP must fight quite fiercely in Thandaunggyi . Candidates are important as both parties are strong in Thandaunggyi. In Thandaunggyi , the candidate of NLD for upper house, Naw Christ Tun is popular among the people . She is the student leader from 1988 and party leader of DPNS-Democratic party for New Society, Students’ Party of 1988. Naw Christ Tun competed in Thandaunggyi in 2015 and she won. Her influence in Thandaunggyi is very strong .She is sure to win in Thandaunggyi. For Lower House seat, prediction is difficult whether NLD or KPP will win.
In conclusion, the risk of NLD to lose in Karen state is two seats from Hpapon and one seat for Thandaunggyi. Thus, out of 19 Union Parliament seat, NLD will win 17 seats.
Mon State and 2020 election
The possibility of NLD winning 2020 election will not be a lot different from 2015 election in Mon state. Some people predicts that NLD will lose a lot, by judging from the lost of NLD of Chaungzon in 2017 bi-election;It is totally wrong.
There are 10 townships in Mon state. There are 10 seats for Lower House and 12 seats for upper House, thus 22 seats in Union Parliament for Mon state.There are two seats for Upper House and one seat for Lower altogher three seats for Union Parliament in Mawlamyine and Ye townships. The remaining eight townships have only one seat for Upper House and one seat for Lower House at the Union Level. The easy calculation for the possibility of NLD winning in Mon state is dividing Mon state into two ,upper part and lower part. The upper part from Thaton to Mawlamyine,Kyaikmawaw is the stronghold of NLD.NLD won all elections from 1990 to 2015 so that 100 % of possibility is that NLD will win in 2020 as well. That area is Thaton, Paung, Bilin, Kyaikto , Mawlamyine,Kyaikmayaw , altogether six townships , that can be comparable to Mohnyin district and Bahmo district in Kachin state. These townships are included in states ,but the nature of these townships ara like mainland Myanmar. People in these townships are strong NLD supporters.In all these Thaton, Paung,Bilin, Kyaikto, Mawlamyine, Kyaikmayaw,Mon population is very small. Almost no population of Mon ethnicity in Thaton and Bilin . Mon political parties did not contest in 2015 election. In the southern part,there are Chaungzon, Mudon, Thanbyuzayat and Ye , altogether 4 townships , Thanbyuzayat is the township of NLD stronghold. The people of Thanbyuzayat are strong supporters of NLD. So that NLD will win decisively in Thanbyuzayat.In Ye township, there are two seats for upper house; one seat will be won by NLD decisively. Competition will be fierce in Mudon township. The possibility of NLD to win in Mudon township is 80% for Both, Upper House and Lower House seats.
In 2015 election, Mon Parties lost lower house seat of Ye township because most of Mon supporters are divided into two mon parties. For 2020 election, there is high possibility that Mon Unity Party, the alliance party of two Mon parties , will win the Lower House seat and the remaining one Upper House seat of Ye towship . The result of Chaungzon Lower House seat and Upper House seat cannot be predicted. Who will win must be known on the election day.
Thus, NLD is sure to win 18 seats out of 22 Union Parliament seats. The results of Chaunzon two seats and the remaining two seats of Ye townships can only be known on 8th November 2020 ; any party can win, NLD party or Mon Unity Party.
In conclusion, in the worst situation ,NLD will win 18 seats out of 22 Union Parliament seats. The possibility of NLD winning 20 seats out of 22 is also high.
Comparison between Mon state , Karen state and Kayah state in 2020 election
While observing Karen state, Mon state and Kayah state, the followings are noticed
In Kayah state,state government and state party are not strong.The competing parties are KySDP and USDP. USDP is strong in Bawlekhe and KySDP is strong in Demoso,Hpruso and Shadaw. NLD is strong in Loikaw, Mese and Hpasawng. NLD is also strong in Demoso, Hpruso and Shadaw. The main factor is that we cannot predict the nature of the voters,whether they vote NLD or not. Thus, in calculating the results of Kayah state Union Parliament, 12 seats out of 19 is estimated to be won by NLD , to be a fairly reasonable judgement.
In Mon and Karen state, the political awareness of voters is very strong. Voters of these two states do not look at the local party or local ethnicity but worry about the military and its alliance parties not becoming strong . In Mon state, the rival party is Mon Unity Party. USDP must not be taken into account as it is very weak. Mon Unity Party is strong in Ye , Mudon and Chaungzon . NLD is strong in the whole Mon state. NLD in Ye, Mudon and Chaungzon is as strong as MUP. In spite of the fact that Mon state government and Mon state party of NLD are not very strong, the situation of Mon state is quite favorable for NLD to win thanks to the people who are strong supporters of NLD. MUP is strong only in Ye, Mudon and Chaungzon. But, it is highly possible that win two Union seats in Mudon and one Upper House seat in Ye . So, NLD can win 18 seats out of Union Parlianment 22 seats. It is probable that NLD lose the remaining two seats of Ye and two Union Parliament seats of Chaungzon.
Karen state voters are very strong supporters of NLD; Karen state government and Karen state Party of NLD is very strong .Nang Khin Htwe Myint who is CEC of NLD, chairperson of state Party, Chief Minister of state government is the main reason why NLD is strong in Karen state. The possibility of NLD winning in Karen state is very strong. For NLD ,only Thandaunggyi and Hpapon are the places of high risk. All remaining townships are to be easily won by NLD.
Chin state and 2020 Election
The main political parties of Chin state are NLD , USDP ,CNLD and ZCD.
ZCD is Zomi Congress for Democracy which is winning party of 1990 election. Pu Chin Sian Thang ,the leader of ZCD is also the member of CRPP.
CNLD-Chin National League for Democracy is the alliance party of CNDP,CPP and CLD.
There are Falam, Hakha, Htantlang, Kanpetlet, Matupi, Mintat, Paletwa,Tedim and Tonzang altogether 9 townships in Chin state. There are 9 Lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats,altogether 21 seats in Union Parliament.
Two Upper House seats are allocated in Tedim , Hakha and Paletwa. So there are two Upper House seats and one Lower House seat in Tedim, Hakha and Paletwa. For the rest of the townships ,there is one Upper House seat and one Lower House seat.
In 2015 election , NLD won all Union Parliament seats except for the seats in Tedim and Tonzang townships. NLD did not compete in Tedim lower house seat as Pu Kyin Shin Tang m the member of CRPP , longtime alliance of NLD run in that constituency. NLD won 16 seats out of 21 seats in Union Parliament.
Townships in Chin state can be divided into 4 categories as to NLD possibilities to win.
- Category A – Hakha, Falam and Paletwa
Hakha, Falam are the constituencies where NLD is sure to win. Other parties are USDP and CNLD. But both USDP and CNLD are not strong enough to beat NLD. NLD is rival-less in these two townships. NLD is very strong in Paletwa , sure to win in coming election. The other main parties are Arakan National Party and Kumi National Party; these two Parties are not strong enough to compete with the NLD. In Hakha, Falam and Palewa townships, NLD is rival-less.
- Category B – Htantlang and Mintat
NLD is strong and sure to win. But, Htantlang and Mintat are not as strong as three townships in Category A. They have to compete with rival USDP, however NLD is stronger and sure to win. Htantlang is the native town of Vice-President Henry Ven Thio .It is easy win. Vice Chairman Henry Ven Thio is for Upper House. For the lower house seat of Htantlang , NLD must compete with USDP which is also strong. There is high possibility that NLD win. Mintat is also like Htantlang, the opposition party USDP is strong.
- Category C – the category of challenging townships for NLD. Matupi and Kanpetlet.
In 2015 election, NLD won in both townships. In 2018 Bi-election , NLD won in Kanpetlet but lost in Matupi. In Kanpetlet , USDP and CNLD are as strong as NLD. . There is possibility that NLD win but the possibility is not as strong as Falam, Hakha, Paletwa, Htantlang and Mintat. In Matupi ,CNLD is as strong as NLD ,USDP is not very strong .In 2018 Bi-election, only one Chin Party , CLD competed and other Chin Parties supported the competing Chin party. USDP did not run , but supported CLD, thus NLD lost. In 2020 election , the main opponent of NLD is CNLD in Matupi;NLD has possibility to win both Upper and Lower Houses . Even if some misfortune happens, NLD win at least two out of four Union Parliament seats in Matupi and Campelet.
- Category D – Tedim, Tonzang
In Tedim and Tonzang , NLD,ZCD and USDP are strong in their own ways. In 2015 election, NLD won one state parliament seat in Tonzang . ZCD is the winner of Tedim and Tomzang except one Upper House seat that USDP win in the eastern part of Tedim in 2015.One of the main factor ZCD won is that NLD did not run for Tedim Lower House seat in favor for its longtime alliance of Pu Kyin Shin Tang of ZCD . There is possibility of NLD winning Upper House seat of eastern part of Tedim townships .In Tonzang township, although NLD lost both seats for Lower House and upper House in 2015 election; vote results that supported NLD is very close to the winner .In Tonzang, NLD is equally strong as ZCD , so there is possibility that NLD win in Tedim and Tonzang townships for both Upper and Lower Houses. Even if misfortune happens , NLD will win at least one seat.
In short, NLD has possibility to win,
(1) in Falam, Hakha, Htantlang, Paletwa and Mintat townships so that all 12 seats of Union Parliament.
(2) in Kanpetlet and Matupi, there is high possibility that NLD to win all 4 Union Parliament seats.
Considering all bad things happening,, and should the worst situation happen ,NLD will win at least 2 seats in Kanpetlet and Matupi.
(3) In Tedim township, for Union Parliament seat, NLD can win Upper House seat of eastern part of Tedim, Taking the worst situation into account , the possibility to win in Tedim will not be calculated in the winning list. In Tonzang NLD has possibility to win both seats of Union Parliament.Taking the worst situation into account, NLD winning only one seat will be calculated .
Thus, in the worst situation, NLD has possibility to win 15 out of 21 Union Parliament seats.
Chin state is the least developed state of Myanmar since independence. Under NLD government, Chin state developed a lot, communication, transportation, electricity all developed. Education and Health care also developed a lot. The airport once thought to be impossible is realized during NLD government. NLD government used 145 % higher budget for Chin state than U Thein Sein government. So that Chin people are supporting NLD more and more, appreciating the development they get during NLD government .So there is high possibility that NLD can win more than 15 seats out of 21 seats in Union Parliament.
Rakhine state and 2020 election
UEC declared on the 17th October 2020 that election cannot be held in 9 townships in Rakhine state. There are altogether 17 townships in Rakhine state; election can be held only in 9 townships. In 9 townships where election are cancelled, 9 seats for Lower House and 7 seats for Upper House are included; so , 22 Union Parliament seats will be cancelled in Rkhine state for 2020 November election.
In the remaining 8 townships where election can be held, the Upper House seats are as follows:
- Sittwe township 1 seat
- Ann township 1 seat
- Kyauk Phyu,Ramee(Yanbyel),Manaung 3 townships 1 seat
- Taunggup township 1 seat
- Thandwe,Gwa townships 1 seat
There will be 8 Lower House seats and 5 Upper House seat , altogether 13 Union Parliament seats are left for 2020 election.
In 2015 election, Arakan National Party (ANP ) won Sittwe, Kyauk Phyu,Ramee (Yanbyel) townships ; ANP won all upper and lower house seats and Upper House seat of Ann township. Lower House seat of Ann township was won on by USDP.
If we observe where townships won by NLD in 2015 election, the result can be seen as follow:
In Manaung township, NLD got 43.74% and ANP got 21.78%.
In Taunggup township, NLD got 41.56% and ANP got 21.74%.
In Thandwe township, NLD got 36.95% and ANP got 28%.
In Gwa township, NLD got 62.73% and ANP got 21.32%.
In Upper House Constituencies of Gwa,Taunggup,Thandwe , 3 townships combined in 2015 election ,NLD got 44.40% and ANP got 23.54%. So, it can be clearly seen that NLD won these 4 townships decisively with about 20% of the votes ahead of bANP.NLD is very strong in these 4 townships. NLD is so very strong that ANP will not be able to beat NLD .
So NLD will win these 4 townships in 2020 election. or 2020;NLD will win 4 Lower House seats representing 4 townships and one Upper House seat for Taunggup and another Upper House seat for Thandwe and Gwa combined .Thus NLD will win 6 Union Parliament seats in Rakhine state in2020 election.
Shan state and 2020 election
In Shan state, there are 55 townships: 55 Lower House seats and 12 Upper House seats altogether 67 Union Parliament seats. UEC announced on 17th October’2020 that in 6 townships election cannot be held.It can be assumed that 6 Lower House seats are cancelled in these 6 townships. but , It’s not the case.In 6 townships where election are cancelled, 4 townships of Wa Division and Mong La special township where election never can be held, are included.
In 2015 election,there are 7 townships where election cannot be held;they are 4 towships in Wa Division, Mongla special area and 2 townships where SSPP/SSA controlled, Kyethi and Mong Hsu. In 2020 election ,Kyethi and Mong Hsu where election could not be held in 2015, are back again in election process but Mong Kung township where elelction was held in 2015 , is cancelled for 2020.Thus in Shan state only 49 Lower House seats are left for 2020 election but 12 Upper House seats are remained untouched as 12 seats for upcoming election. So, in Shan state there are altogether 61 Union Parliament seats for 2020 election.
In Northern part of Shan state,Shan,Wa ,Ta-ang,Kachin,Chin,Lisu,Lawor ethnicity live .In Southern part of Shan state,Shan ,Pa-O,Kayan,Danu,Inn thar live.In Eastern part of Shan state, Shan,Ar-Khar,Lahu ethnicities live. Bamar ethnicity lives all urban areas in the entire Shan state. In Shan state, there are many militia groups and many ethnic armed groups. These militia and EAOs can influence the election process. Ethnic Nationalism is high among Shan, Ta-ang,Pa-O ethnicities. So these ethnicities support only the parties representing their own ethnicities. In constituencies where there are Tatmadaw and Militia groups, USDP normally win. In Shan state, there are many military base and many militias so USDP win a lot of seats in Shan state.
Northern Part of Shan state
- Namhsam and Mantong townships,Ta-ang self-administrative area is the place where Ta-ang National Liberation Army ( TNLA ) controlled , of which Upper House seat and two lower house seats will be won by Ta-ang National Party. Namkham township is also controlled by TNLA and Ta-ang people live there ;so Namkham Lower House seats will be won by Ta-ang National Party.
Ta-ang National Party cannot win in Kutkai and Muse. Kutkai is the military based area and there are many Militias there.Ta-ang people live in western part of Kutkai however as a whole township,USDP will win in Kutkai township. In Muse township,majority of people are Shan people so SNLD will win.
In short, Ta-ang self administrative area Upper House seat and Namhsam , Mantong which is the townships of Ta-ang self-administrative area will be won by Ta-ang National Party, so there will be altogether one Upper House seat and two Lower House seats for TNP .
TNP will win Upper House seat which comprises of Namkham, Kutkai and Muse, but only Namkhame Lower House seat will be won by TNP.
Thus, TNP will win altogether two Upper House seats and three Lower House seats ; so altogether five seats in Union Parliament seats.
- Laukkaing and Konkyan townships are Kokang self-administrative area, of which both Upper House seats and 2 Lower House seat will be won by USDP .Altogether 3 Union Parliament seats will be won by USDP in the area
- Hopang, Mangmao, Pang wang, Narpham, Mangman , Pangsam , 6 townships are Wa self-administrative Division. Only Hopang and Mangman election can be held. So there will be 2 Lower House seats and 1 Upper House seat representing the whole division. Either Wa party or USDP will win those seats.
- Tangyan,Mangyai,Lashio,Theinni,Kunlong townships have one Upper House seat. That seat will be won by SNLD. Out of these 5 towships, in Kunlong, the majority of people are Kokang so USDP will win. In Theinni, Mangyai and Tangyan ,these are stronghold of SNLD ,so 3 Lower House seats of these 3 townships will be won by SNLD. For Lashio township, NLD and USDP will compete to get the Lower House seat of Lashio.
- Hsipaw, Kyaukmae, Namtu, Mabain, Mongmait, NaungCho townships have one Upper House seat and that seat will be won by SNLD. Hsipaw,Kyaukmae,Namtu,3 townships are the stronghold of SNLD, so 3 Lower House seats will be won by SNLD. The townships adjacent to Mandalay Region Mabain, Mongmait and NaungCho which are areas of NLD and thus, 3 Lower House seats will be won by NLD .
Thus, in northern part of Shan state, NLD will win 3 seats or if Lashio is included 4 seats will be won.
Southern part of Shan state
- Hopong, Hsi Hseng, Pinlaung townships are Pa-O self-administrative area, of which Upper House seat will be won by Pa-O National Organization. All 3 townships, 3 lower House will be won by PNO as well.
- Pindaya, Ywa Ngan are DaNu self-administrative area ,of which Upper House seat will be won by NLD. Pindaya and Ywa Nganm townships , 2 Lower House seats will be won as well by NLD. In that area,USDP is also strong. In 2015 ,NLD won all 3 seats:1 Upper House seat and 2 Lower House seats. In 2020 election,it is expected that NLD will win again all these 3 Union Parliament seats.
- Yatsaut, Taunggyi, Kalaw, Nyaungshwe, Pekone townships have one Upper House seat ; that upper house seat will be won by NLD.Yatsaut is Military base area. In 2015 USDP won in Yatsaut . NLD won at a narrow margin in Taunggyi township. For 2020, NLD is strong in Yatsaut and Taunggyi .Thus all 5 seats will be won by NLD: Kalaw ,Nyaungshwe and Pekone are the stronghold of NLD.
- Mongkhai,Limkhae,Kyethi,Monghsu,Loilem,Namhsam,Kunhing,Monglin,Mawkmai,Leicha,Mongpan-townships have one Upper House seat; that seat will be won by SNLD.In Mongkai,election is Instead Monghsu and Kyethi,the base of SSPP/SSA and stronghold of SNLD where 2015 election was cancelled , election will be held. So, in LimKhae,Kyethi,Monghus,Kunhing,Monglin and Leicha which are stronghold of SNLD, SNLD will surely win.
In Loilem,Namhsam,Mawkmai,Mongpan,USDP won in 2015 election. USDP won over SNLD at a narrow margin. In these townships SNLD and USDP are equally storng . NLD is not as strong as SNLD , but quite strong. So, if SNLD and NLD cooperate together and make alliance, SNLD can win in these townships so easily that USDP will be left far away. so such alliance is in need.
In brief, in southern part of Shan state, NLD will win 2 Upper House seats and 7 Lower House seats . So, altogether 9 Union Parliament seats will be won by NLD
Eastern part of Shan state
In eastern part of Shan state, SNLD is not very strong. Shan population of eastern Shan state is not as strong as that of Northern and Southern Shan state. And influence of SSA is not very strong in eastern part of Shan state. In eastern part of Shan state, USDP is the strongest and NLD is the second strongest. In eastern part of Shan state, Shan , Bamar and Lahu ethnicities live.
- Kengtong,Mongpyin,Mongkhet,Mongla,Mongyan townships have one Upper House seat and that seat will be won by USDP .USDP and NLD must compete for Kengtong Lower House seat. There is no election in Mongla area. In Mongpyin ,Mongkhet,Mongyan Lower House seat ,USDP will win.
- Mongtong,Mongset,Mongpyat,Mongyaung,Thachileik-townships have one Upper House; that seat will be won by NLD. In Mongtong,Mongyaung,Thachileik, Lower House seats will be won by NLD .In Mongset and Mongpyat,USDP will win.
In brief,in eastern part of Shan state, NLD will win 1 Upper House seat and 3 Lower House seats, if Kengtong is won ,4 Lower House seats.
Thus, in Shan state as a whole ,NLD can win 3 Upper House seats and 11 to 15 Lower House seats . So, NLD can win 14 to 18 Union Parliament seats.